Welch Consulting Employment Index Rebounds in January

The Welch Consulting Employment Index is 94.9 for January 2013, up from 94.5 in December.  The employment index increased despite the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate because more people were participating in the labor force in January, as a fraction of the total population, compared to December.  An index value of 94.9 means that full-time equivalent employment (from the BLS household survey) is 5.1% below its level in the base year of 1997, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.  The index has recovered from sharp declines in the summer of 2012 and is the same as it was in March 2012.  This means that full-time employment has kept pace with population growth over the past ten months.  Over the past five years the Welch Consulting Employment Index has fallen 6.2% (it was 101.2 in January 2008).

The Welch Consulting Employment Index, disaggregated by gender, is 92.8 for men and 97.7 for women.  Both the indices for men and women are up sharply slightly from December.  Over the past ten months the men’s index is up 0.3% while the women’s employment index is down 0.2%.  Over the past five years the men’s employment index is lower by 6.5% and the women’s index is lower by 5.7%.

Welch_Index_Jan

 

Welch_Index_gender_Jan

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the 1997 base year.  The Welch Index adjusts for population growth by fixing total population to its 1997 level.  Seasonal effects are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.

 

 

January Jobs and Seasonality

Earlier this week I expected the January jobs report to indicate that the economy “added” between 250,000 and 300,000 jobs.  My forecast was premised on BLS continued use of a much larger seasonal adjustment factor.  The BLS appears to be using a more conventional seasonal adjustment factor in 2013 than in 2011 and 2012.  This should mean fewer ups and downs in the jobs reports in 2013 due to seasonal noise.

The BLS seasonal adjustment procedure is a moving average process: seasonal factors change over time.  January is the weakest month of the year for jobs.  Therefore the seasonal factor for January inflates the payroll employment total in order to account for the anticipated drop in employment after the holidays.  The following chart shows how much the BLS seasonal factors have inflated employment in January from 2001 to 2013.  The lowest seasonal adjustment was +1.522% in 2009.  The ten-year average adjustment from 2001 to 2010 was 1.573%.

Jan1

The BLS attributed none of the severity of the downturn in January 2009 to a large seasonal effect at the time.  As the previous chart indicates the BLS actually viewed January 2009 as the mildest January in a decade; that is why employment was adjusted up by only 1.522%, much less than in other years.  The steep employment decline in January 2009 has an echo in two to three years.  The BLS X-12 ARIMA model for seasonal adjustment incorporates the loss of 3.7 million jobs between December 2008 and January 2009 as evidence that the seasonal “January effect” in employment had increased.  Consequently the seasonal adjustments for January 2011 and 2012 were +1.66% and 1.65% in order to offset the apparently larger “january effect”.  The 2011 and 2012 adjustments were the largest for January since 1965.

The following chart shows that the January seasonal adjustments added about 100,000 more jobs in 2011 and 2012 compared to the application of a longer run (10 year) average of seasonal effects.  The chart also shows that the January effect for 2013 (+1.598%) is only slightly above the ten-year average.  The large employment decline in January 2009 had a minimal impact on the adjustment factor last month, adding only about 33,000 more jobs.

Jan2

157,000 additional jobs in the past month, with 33,000 of the gain due to a generous seasonal adjustment, indicates that the job market is weak.  The good news on Friday came from the adjustments to the payroll reports for late 2012.  The January 2013 report is subject to more revisions.  At this point in the recovery, with the unemployment rate hovering near 8%, payroll employment growth of less than 200,000 per month is disappointing.

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