Outlook for June Jobs Report

If tomorrow’s jobs report for June looks like the June 2011 report, we will see payroll job growth of 132,000.  If the labor market report matches the average growth in the decade prior to the 2008-2009 recession payroll employment would increase by 193,000.  Even this more rapid growth would correspond to an annual employment growth rate of 1.75%, barely enough jobs to keep pace with population growth and the rising participation rates of women and older workers.

Labor market observers should pay attention to the growth in full-time employment between May and June (from the household survey) for adults age 20-24, many of whom are just finishing school.  From 1998 to 2007 the full-time employment of workers in this age group increased by 9%, on average, between May and June.  Over the past four years, as new graduates have struggled to find jobs, full-time employment grew by an average of only 6.3% between May and June for adults age 20-24.

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