Yesterday Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels signed the law making Indiana the only right-to-work state in the Rust Belt. Earlier this week pollster Scott Rasmussen reported that 74% of voters favor right-to-work laws that would eliminate mandatory dues and make it much more difficult for unions to organize. Public employee unions are also being challenged. In November Ohio voters rejected a law that restricted the collective bargaining rights of public sector unions, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is facing a possible recall after signing a similar bill in Wisconsin.
Voters’ sentiments seem to reflect their labor market experiences. Private sector unions are vanishing, which will erode support for laws and regulations that strengthen or preserve their bargaining power. On the other hand membership has never been higher in public sector unions. I expect well-organized opposition to bills such as the one introduced in Arizona, which limits the collective bargaining power of public sector unions.
The latest Labor Department data indicate that union members comprise only 6.9% of the private sector workforce. Private sector union membership rates peaked in the 1940s and 1950s at about 1/3 of the workforce. Unions were virtually nonexistent until the 1960s. Today the situation has reversed and there are more union members in government than in the private sector.
Union members are older than non-union workers. In the private sector there are about the same number of non-union workers under the age of 30 and age 55 and above. Among union members there are 2.5 workers age 55 and above for each worker under 30. The following figure illustrates private sector union membership rates for four different age cohorts. The only age group that ever experienced membership rates in excess of 20% includes workers who are now age 55 and above. Younger age cohorts have seen stable membership rates of 10% or less. If these trends continue no more than 5% of the Millennial Generation will ever be (private sector) union members.
The aging of the private sector union workforce means that the issues that matter to Richard Trumka, and the AFL-CIO, are unlikely to energize younger voters. Voters who never belonged to a union show little interest in recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board, NLRB rules changes that give unions an organizing advantage, the NLRB’s opposition to Boeing’s plans to shift production from Washington to South Carolina, or Indiana’s right-to-work law. In an earlier era when the AFL-CIO had more political clout, these issues would have been pivotal in an election year.
Local government employees, such as teachers, sanitation workers, police and firemen, have the highest union membership rates that we have ever seen in any sector of the economy in U.S. history (43%). The battleground for the labor movement has shifted to laws that limit the collective bargaining rights of unions representing government workers, as in Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin. These laws have gained support as local governments have been squeezed by declining property values and tax bases and increasing costs of health care benefits and pensions. The result of the efforts to recall Governor Scott Walker will foreshadow whether public sector unions can maintain their bargaining power and political clout.