Parity and Order Statistics: Why Tiger Woods May Not Break Jack Nicklaus’ Record in Majors

When Ben Curtis won the Valero Texas Open on Sunday he became the 17^th different winner in the first 18 PGA tournaments this season.  In addition there have been 14 different winners of the past 14 major tournaments in professional golf.  The only other time, in professional golf history, with similarity parity among the world’s best golfers was when 15 different golfers won 15 major tournaments between Nick Price’s PGA Championship in 1994 and Lee Janzen’s U.S. Open victory in 1998.  There are more top young golfers capable of winning major tournaments than at any time in golf history, and this will lower Tiger Woods’ chances of setting the record for most major championship victories.

Tiger Woods won 14 of the 50 major tournaments he entered between 1997 and 2009.  No one in the history of golf had a similar run, winning 28% of majors entered.  In order to win each major tournament Tiger had to shoot a lower score than the best score among the rest of the field.  The best score among a group of golfers is an extreme value or order statistic.

About 25% of the variation in golf scores in a major championship is attributable to the golf course and the day’s playing conditions.  After removing the common component of his residual score Tiger Woods, in his prime, had a standard deviation of 6.5 shots per major tournament.  Tiger’s 28% win percentage is equivalent to playing against six rival golfers who are each expected to score four shots worse than Tiger, on average.

Can Tiger tie or break Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major championships?  If so, how long will that take?  If Tiger returns to previous form, and maintains a one shot per round lead over the six top rivals who have a chance to beat him, he would break the record in late 2016.  But Tiger’s top rivals are better than they were a decade ago and there are more of them.

If Tiger faces twice as many top rivals his win rate falls by 35%.  If his edge over his rivals is cut in half, so that his advantage is two strokes per four rounds, his win rate falls by more than 25%.  If both occur he will win 56% less often or about one major championship every two years.  The last scenario is the most likely and means that even if Tiger returns to his old form, the large field of top young golfers he now faces will delay his 19^th major championship victory for at least another decade.

 

In Majors Tiger Doesn’t Compare to Jack

Comparing great athletes across generations is often an entertaining conversation.  No such discussion has garnered more attention than comparisons of Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.  Comparing the two greatest golfers in the past 50 years is like asking a Chicago Bears fan whether Walter Payton or Gale Sayers was the better running back.  Comparisons are complicated by improvements in equipment, changes in training techniques, and differences in the strength of each golfer’s competition.  My comparison uses the World Golf Rankings methodology and leaves no doubt that Jack Nicklaus’ record in major championships is superior to Tiger’s, at the same point in their careers.

The World Golf Rankings award 100 points to a golfer who wins a major tournament, 60 points for second place, 40 for third, 30 for fourth and 24 and 20 points for fifth and sixth place finishes.  The points drop steeply with rank order finish with 1.5 points awarded to any golfer who made the cut and finished 60^th or lower in the tournament.  This system rewards winning and competing for a championship more than consistent top ten finishes.  For example a golfer who wins one of the major championships but misses the cut at the other three earns more points for the year than a golfer who finished fifth in all four majors.

Jack Nicklaus won his first major at the 1962 U.S. Open and Tiger Woods won his first at the 1997 Masters, 35 years later.  Since then Tiger has played in 57 major championships (and missed four due to injuries).  Over that span Woods earned 33.8 points per major played, a remarkable record but far less than Nicklaus’ 45.3 points per major over a comparable span of 57 tournaments.  In other words Nicklaus averaged better than a third place finish in majors over nearly 15 years, using a scoring system that penalizes performances that are less than spectacular.

The World Golf Rankings takes a weighted average of the past eight major championships (over two years).  The following chart illustrates the difference in the rankings of Nicklaus and Woods in major championships over the fifteen years after they each won their first major.  The difference in rankings is presented as the percentage of the highest possible ranking (eight straight major championships).  Nicklaus had a higher ranking in majors over 82% of their overlapping careers.  The exceptions are that Woods’ performance in 2000-2003 was better than Nicklaus’ record in 1965-1968, and again in 2008-2009 compared to Nicklaus in 1973-1974.

In the years following this chart, Nicklaus would go on win four of the next 40 majors he played culminating in the 1986 Masters.  Even in this second half of his career Nicklaus averaged 27.6 points per major championship played.   Tiger’s disappointing performance at the Masters this weekend makes it seem doubtful that he will tie or break Nicklaus’ record of 18 Major championships (Tiger has 14).  Woods has earned 18.6 points, on average, in the eleven major tournaments he has played since 2009.

Woods is one of the greatest golfers of all time and may again become the best player in the world.  When evaluating performances on the biggest stages against the best competition, Jack Nicklaus from 1962 to 1977 was better than Tiger Woods from 1997 to 2012, with few exceptions.